Kim Hill interviewed Sir David King, Senior Scientific Adviser to the UK Government on Morning Report on 6 October 2007. Go to this link to listen – http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday Sir David said that we are current being impacted by the decisions humanity made 30 years ago in terms of global warming. So this means if we suddenly (and magically!) are able to reduce the CO2 back to 270 part per million which is considered a safe level for life on earth – we are current at 380 ppm and rising 2 ppm each year – we would still have to “adapt to whats in the pipeline”. He says there is global agreement in the scientific community now that by the end of the century we will likely see a temperature rise of between 1.7 and 3.7 centigrade – even if we change the way we live on the earth. So we have to reduce our emissions (dramatically) AND prepare for impact. He says we have to “take everyone with us”. WOW! It’s so affirming to hear a senior scientist, respected and reputable, talking about Mecology. Encouraging individuals to take responsibility for their impact. The decisions we make today will impact the world in 30 years time. So what are you doing today? Living so humanity – and all other species – gets to exist in a world where we thrive rather than survive? Or just doing the same old thing, not caring what impact that has, on you, your children, your friends, your livelihood, your future …… Sir David says “we are past the point of dangerous impact”. The question is: How much impact can we sustain?
I have no doubt that global warming is real, man-made, and dangerous.
But it’s not correct to say that “if we suddenly (and magically!) are able to reduce the CO2 back to 270 part per million which is considered a safe level for life on earth … we would still have to ‘adapt to whats in the pipeline’.” Perhaps the speaker was suggesting that if we suddenly stop all greenhouse gas emissions, we still have warming “in the pipeline.” The amount of in-the-pipeline warming has been estimated at 0.6 deg.C (Hansen et al. 2005, Science, 308, 1431).
Also, there’s no “safe” or “optimal” level of CO2, nor is there any “optimal” temperature or climate. There’s nothing “magical” about current, or pre-industrial, conditions. The danger of global warming is climate change; life is adapted to current conditions, and change induces stress on ecosystems. The faster the change, the greater the danger, and the world is currently warming about 20 times faster than it does during a reasonably rapid deglaciation (transition from full-glacial to interglacial conditions during ice ages).
By: tamino on October 8, 2007
at 1:49 am